Analysts a little less confident about the Swiss economy

ECONOMY

While optimism remains, it has fallen compared to the past months due to the unknowns linked to the delta variant of the coronavirus.

Analysts a little less confident about the Swiss economy
Analysts a little less confident about Swiss economy

Analysts a little less confident about the Swiss economy

Analysts a little less confident about Swiss economy

Financial analysts remain optimistic about the Swiss economy, but less so than in recent months. The uncertainties of the delta variant of the coronavirus pandemic are also weighing on them.

The index on economic prospects calculated by Credit Suisse and CFA Society Switzerland on the basis of a survey of experts stood at 42.8 points in July, 8.5 points lower than in June, according to the data published today.

Specifically, this means that there are still more specialists who expect a strengthening of the economic dynamics in the next six months than there are specialists who point to the opposite development. The index was at 8.3 in January 2020 and - with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic - had collapsed to -45.8 in March 2020, only to rise again in the following months; in May of this year a record value of +72.2 points was touched.

Back in July 2021 and in detail, 40.0% of those surveyed were convinced that there would be no change in the economic situation in the next six months, 51.4% expected an improvement and 8.6% predicted a worsening (values which then determine the overall index: 51.4 minus 8.6 = 42.8).

Compared with June, the number of optimists declined (down 7.6 points), while pessimists increased slightly (up 0.9%) and the ranks of those who believe the status quo is growing (up 6.7 points). A little more negative, in the monthly comparison, is also the judgment on the current situation, with an index at 37.2 points (-6.4 points).

The deterioration of estimates for the Swiss future is accompanied by a similar - and in part even more marked - analysis for the Eurozone (-16.4 points to 40.0 points), the USA (-32.4 points to 8.6 points) and China (-9.2 points to 11.8 points).

Coming back to Switzerland, the experts who expect an increase in inflation are increasing (+15 points to 69%). A significant proportion (17%), however, does not foresee any change and some (14%) are betting on a downturn.

Rates are expected to remain steady in the short term (80%); no one expects them to fall and only a minority (20%) sees an increase on the horizon. In the long term, however, 77% anticipate a rise: less significant is the proportion of those who do not see any change (23%) and none anticipate a fall.

In terms of the SMI index, 47% of those questioned expect an increase, while 38% anticipate stable values and 15% a decrease. With respect to exchange rates, 51% of the sample believe that there will be no change in the Euro/Franc rate, 26% expect a weakening of the Franc and 23% a strengthening. As for unemployment, 15% see an increase in the number of unemployed, 44% a stagnation and 41% a decrease.

Thirty-five analysts responded to the survey, which was conducted between July 15 and 22.

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