Garzoni: Should contact tracing fail there will be a surge

For the first time in months, infections in Switzerland have returned to exceed the threshold of 500 per day . We asked Christian Garzoni, , to comment on this data.

‘I am convinced that we should abandon the analysis of the single daily data and instead focus on the trend of the last two weeks. In Switzerland there is a slow but steady increase in cases that must still be kept under control, even in Ticino. The number Rt grows modestly and therefore there is no exponential phase. This is also because the contact tracing activity is aggressive: all cases are contacted and quarantined. This allows to contain the outbreaks. It is true that the cantons with high numbers are starting to reach the limit of the tracing capacity. If contact tracing drops, the numbers could increase rapidly. However, Swiss figures have to be looked at canton by canton. Vaud, Zurich and Geneva have a delicate situation, well beyond the alarm threshold of 60 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Whatis the situation in hospitals?

‘For the moment it is working well, this is because most of the infections are recorded among young people. However, diagnostic test bottlenecks in the cold months must be avoided. It will therefore be necessary to quickly test all people with flu symptoms in order to quarantine only those who really have Sars-Cov-2. The key will be to stay at home and get tested quickly in case of flu symptoms.