A shortage of pilots? Not at Swiss

Flights resumed? Yes. With several problems. The US airlines are aware of this, as they are facing an overwhelming lack of pilots. Or almost. To say: Americans, eager to improve flight frequencies now that the anti-Covid restrictions have been lifted, are intensifying their training programs, hiring foreign personnel and are even covering regional routes by bus. Because there's a shortage of people in the cockpit.

The American industry, as per federal estimates released by Bloomberg, will need an average of 14,500 new pilots per year between now and 2030 in order to function. A mammoth figure. What's more, several carriers have admitted that they won't be able to meet their respective capacity plans not just for 2022 but, at least, from now to 2027. Simply because there aren't enough pilots.

United, for example, is currently not operating 150 short-haul jets. This is despite strong, very strong demand for internal flights.

A known problem

The problem is not new, at the very least in America. Prior to the pandemic, the United States was already experiencing a pilot shortage. The pandemic-induced staff cuts are now being felt. Severely. Particularly when we consider that several veterans, at the time, had accepted early retirement. And so, two years later, U.S. carriers can't find enough qualified crews to reinstate, 100 percent, 2019 networks.

United, for example, expects flights this quarter to be down 13% compared to the quoted 2019, while Delta predicts a 16% drop and, again, JetBlue is cutting 10% from its summer schedule.

The greatest troubles, we read, are at the regional level. Not least because the companies that provide connections between hubs and smaller cities almost always belong to giants like American, United and Delta. And so, in some ways, their hands are bound.

On a few short routes, for now, agreements have been made with some trucking companies to substitute service with buses. Others are launching recruitment campaigns in the country and further afield, even going so far as to court and hire Australian pilots. At higher than standard rates. With all the consequences for low-cost carriers, which are already faced with rapidly rising labor costs.

And Swiss? Apart from the USA, how is Switzerland positioned in this respect? A few days ago, Swiss announced that several flights had been cancelled due to a lack of personnel. " Currently, however, there is no general shortage of pilots at Swiss," said the carrier's spokesman Marco Lipp. "Due to the upcoming summer challenges, we have made some temporary adjustments to our flight schedule. Our goal is to ensure as much stability in operations as possible." No bottlenecks, then.

It is true, by contrast, that pilots are still needed. And there will be. Even in Switzerland. "This need - explains Lipp - depends on the number of retirements, the growth or reduction of the fleet and the economic development of the sector. However, these factors can be subject to large fluctuations. We expect an annual need for 40-60 additional pilots starting in 2023."

Summer

The summer, meanwhile, is approaching. And, apart from some turbulence and announced adjustments, it would appear to be loaded with promise. Then again, Swiss is fresh off an excellent Easter. "Indeed, we see that, for most of our routes, demand is very strong," Lipp concludes. "In recent weeks, the situation at the booking level has continued to improve significantly for several key markets. I'm thinking of Europe and long-haul destinations such as India, the United States and Bangkok. We've also noticed that many customers are rebooking their trips to more distant dates, although we're still seeing strong short-term demand. And bookings from business customers are also increasing. Capacity? We believe we're increasing our supply to about 70 to 80 percent over pre-pandemic levels."